> [!abstract] > We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. (Wikipedia, 2024). This one feels personal, as I have experienced this bias myself by being early in the adoption curve of technologies (e.g., the internet in 1993, Bitcoin in the early 2010s, Ethereum in 2015, etc.) and assuming that everybody was equally aware and convinced as I was about their transformative potential — when reality showed that I was off by at least a decade. And yet, I also underestimated how influential such technologies would end up being after their full adoption. >[!related] >- **North** (upstream): [[Diffusion of innovations]] >- **West** (similar): — >- **East** (different): — >- **South** (downstream): —