> [!abstract] > We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run (Wikipedia, 2024). This one feels personal, as I have experienced this bias myself by being early in the adoption curve of technologies (e.g., the internet in 1993, Bitcoin in the early 2010s, Ethereum in 2015, etc.) and assuming that everybody was equally aware and convinced as I was about their transformative potential — when reality showed that I was off by at least a decade. And yet, I also underestimated how influential such technologies would end up being after their full adoption. >[!quote] Possible cause >I have a theory about why it's so easy to underestimate long-term progress and overestimate short-term progress. > >Before a technology hits a threshold of "becoming useful", it may have a long history of progress behind it. But that progress is only visible and felt to researchers. In practical terms, there is no progress being made as long as the thing is going from not-useful to still not-useful. > >So then it goes from not-useful to useful-but-bad and it's instantaneous progress. Then as more applications cross the threshold, and as they go from useful-but-bad to useful-but-OK, progress all feels very fast. Even if it's the same speed as before. > >So we overestimate short term progress because we overestimate how fast things are moving when they cross these thresholds. But then as fewer applications cross the threshold, and as things go from OK-to-decent instead of bad-to-OK, that progress feels a bit slowed. And again, it might not be any different in reality, but that's how it feels. So then we underestimate long-term progress because we've extrapolated a slowdown that might not really exist. > >I think it's also why we see a divide where there's lots of people here who are way overhyped on this stuff, and also lots of people here who think it's all totally useless (). >[!related] >- **North** (upstream): [[Diffusion of innovations]] >- **West** (similar): — >- **East** (different): — >- **South** (downstream): —