>[!abstract] >**Backcasting** is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. Robinson from the University of Waterloo in 1990. The fundamental question of backcasting asks: "if we want to attain a certain goal, what actions must be taken to get there?" (adapted from Wikipedia, 2026). >[!example] >Amazon is known for starting from the future press release (PR) or frequently asked questions (FAQ) and working backwards when defining a future product. ## Forecasting vs. backcasting - *Forecasting* involves predicting the future (unknown) values of the dependent variables using the (known) values of the independent variable. - For example: predicting tomorrow’s weather based on today’s pressure, humidity, and winds. - _Backcasting_ involves predicting the (unknown) values of the independent variables that would need to have existed in order to explain the (known) values of the dependent variable. - For example: what maximum concentration of atmospheric CO2 is needed to avoid overshooting a global mean surface temperature threshold in the year 2100. >[!related] >- **North** (upstream): — >- **West** (similar): — >- **East** (different): — >- **South** (downstream): —