>[!abstract] >Credence probability, also known as epistemic probability or subjective probability, is one of two types of interpretations of probability, along with [[aleatory probability]]. It is a measure of logical or psychological degrees of partial belief that a person or system has in the likelihood of an event occurring based on their interpretation of the available evidence. It is a personal assessment, often expressed as a percentage from 0% to 100%, and is closely tied to the concept of betting odds. In Bayesian statistics, credence plays a crucial role in updating beliefs based on new evidence. >[!example] References >- Von Felbert, A. (2022, April 18). *Aleatory and epistemic probability*. Deep Mind. https://www.deep-mind.org/2022/04/18/aleatory-and-epistemic-probabilities/ >[!related] >- **North** (upstream): [[Bayesian statistics]] >- **West** (similar): — >- **East** (different): [[Aleatory probability]] >- **South** (downstream): —