>[!abstract] >The turkey contemplates its life and rejoices at being fed, sheltered, cared for, and protected against predators by the friendly local farmer. The turkey enjoys feelings of nonchalance and security as it is afforded the luxury of focusing on having fun, all its other needs being met. And then came Thanksgiving ([[Taleb, 2007]]). ^8a3d26 >[!related] >- **North** (upstream): [[Problem of induction]] (David Hume’s critique of reasoning from repeated observation to universal truth) >- **West** (similar): [[Black swan]] >- **East** (different): [[- Law of large numbers (the idea that repeated trials converge on stable expectations, assuming stationarity)]] >- **South** (downstream): [[Survivorship bias]] (focusing on the “fed turkeys” without considering those eliminated by rare events)