>[!abstract] >Reversion to the mean is the statistical phenomenon stating that the greater the deviation of a random variate from its mean, the greater the probability that the next measured variate will deviate less far. In other words, an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event. > >Although this phenomenon appears to violate the definition of independent events, it simply reflects the fact that the probability density function $P(x)$ of any random variable $x$, by definition, is nonnegative over every interval and integrates to one over the interval $(-\infty, \infty)$. Thus, as you move away from the mean, the proportion of the distribution that lies closer to the mean than you do increases continuously. ("Reversion to the mean", 2025). I consider it to be one of the most powerful and yet underrated explanatory forces of the universe. Excessive shifts in many domains (at least in those that satisfy the relevant statistical assumptions for reversion to the mean) tend to be temporary and bound for reversion over time. This universal force manifests itself in our cultural parlance too — such as when we talk about the political pendulum swinging the other way, or karma balancing out good and bad luck, etc. Yet we give in to hubris and excessive sentiment (e.g., isolationism, jingoism, nationalism, patriotism) instead of trying to settle for a sustainable equilibrium. ## References - Reversion to the mean. (2025, March 16). In *Wolfram MathWorld*. https://mathworld.wolfram.com/ReversiontotheMean.html