>[!abstract] >One of the most famous parables from the Huainanzi, an ancient Chinese text made up of essays from scholarly debates in the 2nd century B.C. The story exemplifies the view of Taoism regarding "fortune" ("good luck") and "misfortune" ("bad luck"). > >The story is well-known throughout the East Asian cultural sphere and is often invoked to express the idea of "silver lining" or "blessing in disguise" in Chinese, Vietnamese, Korean, and Japanese. ("The old man lost his horse", 2025). >[!quote] >Good luck and bad luck create each other >and it is difficult to foresee their change. >A righteous man lived near the border. >For no reason, his horse ran off into barbarian territory. >Everyone felt sorry for him. >But his father spoke to him: >"Who knows if that won't bring you good luck?" >Several months later, >his horse came back with a group of good, noble barbarian horses. >Everyone people congratulated him. >But his father spoke to him: >"Who knows if that won't bring you bad luck?" >Now his house is rich in horses >and the son mounted with joy/loved riding. >He fell and broke his leg. >Everyone people felt sorry for him. >But his father spoke to him: >"Who knows if that won't bring you good luck?" >One year later >the barbarians invaded across the border. >Adult men strung up their bows and went into battle. >Nine out of ten border residents were killed, >except for the son because of his broken leg. >Father and son were protected/both survived. >Hence: Bad luck brings good luck >and good luck brings bad luck. >This happens without end >and nobody can estimate it. This parable illustrates my idea of reversion to the mean being one of the most powerful forces of the universe — how both personal circumstances and the course of History oscillate around some central limit. ## References - The old man lost his horse. (2025, March 06). In *Wikipedia*. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=The%20old%20man%20lost%20his%20horse&oldid=1266671472